THE RON PAUL SPECTER

The more stupid the Republicans are, the more intense becomes the populist rebellion.

Sam Francis, Populism and the future of American Politics

I friend of mine recently asked what I think will happen in the instance Ron Paul loses the Republican nomination. Will he run third party? Will he endorse another candidate? These questions and many were at the forefront of his mind. This wouldn't be of any real significance were he to be a Ron Paul supporter, but this individual supports Fred Thompson. This wasn't the concern of a supporter wondering what to do once all is said and done. This was the legitimate fear of what will happen once all the votes have been cast.

This election is rather unique. We have an outsider ahead of Thompson and Giuliani after the first three states have staked their claims. While he is only hovering at around 8%, his influence on the upcoming general elections are looming. What will happen with that eight percent? Will they go third party or will they endorse the Republican nominee. These questions, more so than what Congressman Paul will do, ought to worry the frontrunners.

Fact is, most of Ron Paul's supporters are die-hard. They have become disenchanted with run-of-the-mill Republicanism. They believe that his ideas are the only thing that will save America. As far as they are concerned, the Democrats are flying off a cliff at 70 mph while the Republicans are cruising at 65. Both are going in the wrong direction, one just happens to be going 5 mph slower. This leaves the lesser of two evils in a different context than elections passed. And I am not at all sure that the traditional "X democrat is going to throw America to hell in a breadbasket" tactic will work on these people.

So what will happen? Well, I believe that the vast majority of Paul supporters, though certainly not all, will vote third party. Whether it is the Libertarian Party of the almost defunct Constitution Party, you will see a surge in their numbers. I do not predict that they will win, but their existence should strike fear in the heart of the Republican frontrunners. This voting block may end up being the Ross Perot and Ralph Nader of days gone by. People who spoke their mind, and voted their conscience, even when it could cost the lesser of two evils a stay in the Oval Office.